Trade Jolt

It Trump Wins November 5 , Bitcoin Should Jump!

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Published	Deadline	Asset
Mon Oct 28 2024	Tue Nov 4 2025	option
Sentiment	Risk To Reward	Jolt Maker
bullish	6%	sdadesky
Minimum Outlay	Jolt Guidance Cost	Max Loss Per Pos
$ 34	$ 25	$ 34
Min Gain Per Pos	Max Gain Per Pos	Duration
$ 100	$ 1,000	177 days
Optimal Conditions	Brokerage Conditions	Account Restrictions
Underlying price below 24.00	Ability to trade option spreads, both bullish and bearish, with defined risk.	Allowed in Regular and retirement accounts (IRA s)
Probability Gain
70%

Supporting Graph
Rationale
As I write this, most polls and political betting sites like Polymarket now give Trump a 90% plus chance of winning the electoral college votes.
Whether that makes you happy or miserable, at least your wallet can prosper.

A Trump win on November 5 could boost Bitcoin due to several factors:
- Less Restrictive Regulations. Trump has bitterly criticized SEC chairman Gensler and would revamp the SEC with crypto-friendly leadership.
- Trump pledged to create a "strategic Bitcoin stockpile" for the United States, where the government would retain 100% of any Bitcoin it currently holds or acquires in the future.
- Trump has vowed to increase US energy production to support Bitcoin mining and indicated that he wants the US to be a global hub for cryptocurrency operations.
- Trump's tariff politics are likely to unleash trade or currency wars, with investors seeking haven in Gold and Bitcoin
Description

Here's how a smart investor can play this trade. As the graph shows, BITO - a Bitcoin ETF that is linked to Bitcoin's performance- has just breached its overhead line of resistance. It should make a pause again at $23, it's historic all time high, then ultimately move up to around $32.

I've developed a play on BITO reaching $23 the weeks following a possible Trump win, and possibly even moving higher on a bit of post-electoral Bitcoin exuberance. For every $34 you put at risk, you could gain as much as $1000 if Bitcoin moves to new highs and BITO surges to $23. If BITO (and Bitcoin) stays stagnant or drops, you'll lose your entire wager. A more likely outcome is in the $250 to $500 range, which is still a 8 to 15 times your money in under two weeks.

If you want guidance on how to place this bet, you should already have opened an option account with the brokerage of your choice. Be sure that you have the right to put on defined risk multi-leg trades. The guidance will cost you $25.

At your markers!

Disclosure: Investing in options and crypto is inherently risky. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell.Please read our options disclaimer on this site before trying to emulate any trade shown here.

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