{"id":1290,"date":"2017-08-16T19:21:05","date_gmt":"2017-08-16T19:21:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/?p=1290"},"modified":"2017-08-17T16:52:28","modified_gmt":"2017-08-17T16:52:28","slug":"fastenal-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/fastenal-fast\/","title":{"rendered":"FASTENAL (FAST)"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is a position origally entered into as a calendar spread after earnings<\/p>\n

\"fast_after_adjustment\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As you can see, I expected to make money anywhere between 37.50 and 47.50, with a 95% statistical probability of being the price range.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, volatility dropped far beyong what I expected, diminishing the values of my still active long calls and puts. Rather than close them at a small loss, I decided to adjust the trade, giving it a bullish bias.
\nThe $37 profit I already booked is reflected in this graph by modifying the cost basis of the 45 calls we sold.<\/p>\n

Here was my prognosis for the stock<\/p>\n

\"prognosis\"<\/a><\/p>\n

So in my adjustment, I kept the long puts for safety until I saw a breakout or volume confirming my upside bias.I converted the long call into a ratio spread, buying 1x 18sep 43 call selling 2x my position of 45 calls, and buying 1x of SEP 45 calls. This is long delta, benefitting from a price rise, and will only slightly lose from the passage of time and expected decrease in volatility. <\/p>\n

My maintenance margin, per position is zero dollars, requiring no extra outlay, and my maximum loss per position is $38. At the price I reasonable expect the stock to reach by the expiry of the near term options, I stand to make about $100\/position. This is a risk reward of about 1:3.<\/p>\n

\"fast_15aug_status\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is a position origally entered into as a calendar spread after earnings As you can see, I expected to make money anywhere between 37.50 and 47.50, with a 95% statistical probability of being the price range. Unfortunately, volatility dropped far beyong what I expected, diminishing the values of my still active long calls and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trades"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1290"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1290\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1332,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1290\/revisions\/1332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradejolt.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}